A daily-rebalanced, trend-following ETF portfolio that is stock-heavy in uptrends (100% to broad US, developed, emerging and small-cap value ETFs) and bond-leaning in downtrends (30% to the same stock ETFs and 70% to Treasury ETFs), using SPY’s 200-day moving average as the signal.

In plain terms: The plan watches SPY’s price relative to its 200-day average. If SPY is above that long-term trend line, you put 100% of the portfolio into five stock ETFs (heavy stock exposure across US, developed markets, emerging markets, and small-cap/value plays). If SPY is below that line, you tilt to bonds by assigning 70% to two Treasury ETFs and 30% evenly across the same five stock ETFs. The weights are fixed (e.g., 42/24/12/14/8 for the stock-only case; 6/6/6/6/6 for the stock portion in the bond case, with 35% each to VGSH and SPTI). The portfolio is rebalanced every day to maintain these target weights. In short: uptrend = aggressive stock stance; downtrend = defensive mix with bonds, plus a small stock sleeve. You’ll own a broad mix of stocks (US, international, and small-caps) along with government bonds, with the exact mix shifting based on SPY’s trend signal.

Out-of-sample edge: ~36.8% annualized return with Sharpe ~3.0 vs SPY ~2.68, lower drawdown (~4.9% vs 5.1%), beta ~0.81. Trend-driven stock exposure with bond hedges aims for higher returns with less risk than the S&P 500.