Mining Leads Commodities (and thus bonds / inflation)
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
A daily, rules-driven ETF strategy. It uses mining stocks to decide if the backdrop is inflationary or disinflationary, then rotates among commodities, bonds, sectors, currencies, and volatility hedges using simple trend, “stretched,” and volatility checks.
1) First, it checks if mining stocks (XME) are trending up. If yes, it assumes an inflation-friendly backdrop; if not, a disinflation one.
2) Inside each backdrop it asks: Are prices trending (via fast/slow moving averages), are they “stretched” up or down (RSI, a 0–100 heat score), and how jumpy is the market (volatility)?
3) Based on that, it rotates among ETFs: e.g., DBC (broad commodities), TLT (long US Treasuries), XLE (energy), XLP/XLU (defensive), SOXX/SMH/QQQ (tech), USO/USL & UNG/UNL (oil/gas), VIXY/VIXM or SVXY (fear hedges), YCS/EUO (bets against yen/euro).
4) After sharp spikes, it adds “mean‑reversion” trades to take risk down. It rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample edge: a daily, regime-driven ETF rotation delivering 26.31% annualized return vs SPY’s 22.85%, and far lower drawdown (9.37% vs 14.70%). Higher risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar ~2.81, Sharpe ~1.14) with built-in hedges and mean-reversion.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.4 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 421.69% | 13.95% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.85 | |
| 24,779.27% | 54.66% | 1.44% | 4.85% | 3.45 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,487,926.94Regulatory Fees
$14,774.98
Total Slippage
$90,681.08
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-based multi-asset etf rotation, commodities/bonds, volatility-aware, momentum + mean reversion, tactical, hedged
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 80 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ACWI
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
Stocks
AMLP
Alerian MLP ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
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BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks