Mining Leads Commodities (and thus bonds / inflation)
Today’s Change (Aug 23, 2026)
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About
A daily, regime-switching macro strategy: let miners lead to choose inflation vs disinflation playbooks, then use momentum and overbought/oversold checks to tilt across commodities, bonds, currencies, sectors, and volatility hedges.
First it asks: are metals/miners trending up? If yes, it assumes an inflation backdrop and uses an “inflation” playbook (energy, oil, broad commodities, stronger USD vs euro/yen), adding hedges when stocks look overheated. If not, it uses a “disinflation” playbook (Treasuries, defensives, quality tech; often shorts oil/nat‑gas/EM). Simple trend and “hot/cold” checks (EMA/RSI) fine‑tune entries, with special rules for bonds and natural gas. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample edge: 25.7% annualized return vs SPY 21.6%; max drawdown 9.4% vs 14.7%; Sharpe ~1.25; Calmar 2.74; beta ~0.69. Daily regime-switching macro strategy across commodities, bonds, currencies aims for higher, steadier risk-adjusted growth.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro, regime-switching, momentum, mean reversion, commodities, bonds, currencies, volatility, tactical, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 80 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ACWI
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
Stocks
AMLP
Alerian MLP ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks