Metals Contrarian Switch w/ some leverage and better protection from tech bubbles
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Daily contrarian rotation between tech-leveraged ETFs and metal ETFs. If TQQQ’s RSI is under 25, buy the weakest tech ETF among TQQQ, TECL, SOXL by 10-day performance; otherwise buy the weakest among CPER, SLV, PALL, PPLT, SLX, UGL. 100% invested, rebalance daily.
Simple, plain-language description of the logic:
- What are we buying? One ETF each day, chosen from either a tech group (TQQQ, TECL, SOXL) or a metals group (CPER, SLV, PALL, PPLT, SLX, UGL).
- What triggers the switch? We look at a momentum-like signal on TQQQ: RSI is a gauge that tells if something is overbought or oversold. If RSI(TQQQ) is below about 25, that’s considered very oversold for tech, and we look to tech ETFs for our pick. If RSI is 25 or higher, we switch to metals.
- How do we pick the exact ETF within each group? In either group, we examine the last 10 days of performance and choose the one that has performed the worst (the bottom in 10-day cumulative return). This is a contrarian tilt: when things have been weakest recently, we buy that one hoping for a rebound.
- How much do we invest? 100% in the chosen ETF, rebalancing daily. This means every day we reassess and either stay with the same ETF or switch to the new one.
- Why metals when tech isn’t extremely oversold? Metals often behave differently from tech and can serve as a diversification or hedge, so the strategy shifts exposure to metals in that case.
- What are the risks? The approach uses leverage (the tech group includes 3x ETFs and UGL is 2x gold), which can magnify both gains and losses. Daily rebalancing plus a single-asset focus can lead to substantial drawdowns in strong trending markets or abrupt turns in either the tech or metals spaces. It’s a high-variance, rules-based rotation rather than a traditional buy-and-hold approach.
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers superior risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ~6 vs ~1.8 for the S&P), with tech/metals rotation and daily rebalancing - aiming for higher, steadier growth than the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 1, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, leveraged etfs, metals, contrarian, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
CPER
United States Copper Index Fund
Stocks
PALL
abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF
Stocks
PPLT
abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF
Stocks
SLV
iShares Silver Trust
Stocks
SLX
VanEck Steel ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks