A daily, 100% allocation contrarian strategy that shifts between 3x leveraged tech ETFs, a volatility ETF, and a copper/metal basket based on RSI signals on QQQ and SPY and 10-day performance. It emphasizes buying oversold signals in tech, hedging on extreme overbought, and leveraging copper/commodities when markets are neutral, with copper historically driving much of the gains.

- What it does in plain terms: Each day it looks to put all your money into one instrument chosen from a small list. The choice depends on whether popular market gauges are telling you stocks are oversold or overbought. If the market looks oversold, it tenders to buy one of four three-times-leveraged stock ETFs. If the market looks overbought, it may instead buy a volatility ETF. If nothing extreme is happening, it shifts into a metal/commodity exposure, with copper being a historically important part of the mix. - How the signals are calculated: It uses RSI, a momentum gauge, on QQQ (the Nasdaq 100) and SPY (the S&P 500). An RSI below about 30 signals oversold; above about 79 signals extreme overbought. - Asset choices: The array of possible investments includes four 3x leveraged equity ETFs (TQQQ, TECL, SOXL, UPRO), a volatility ETF (UVXY), and a basket of metals/commodities ETFs (CPER for copper, GLD gold, SLV silver, PALL palladium, PPLT platinum, SLX steel). - How the pick happens: If QQQ RSI < 30, the system scans the four levered ETFs and picks the one with the worst (lowest) 10-day cumulative return, i.e., the one that has underperformed recently, with 100% allocated to that single asset. If that condition isn’t met, it checks SPY RSI < 30 and repeats the same top-four selection. If neither oversold condition holds, it checks for extreme overbought (QQQ RSI > 79); if true, it allocates to UVXY (the volatility ETF). If that condition isn’t met, it checks SPY RSI > 79 and again would go to UVXY. If none of the RSI-driven extremes apply, it falls back to a metals/commodities tilt by selecting the single best/worst performer among CPER, GLD, SLV, PALL, PPLT, SLX based on the same 10-day cumulative return rule, i.e., the one that has performed the worst in the recent window. - Position sizing and rebalancing: Every signal results in a full 100/100 allocation to the chosen asset (no diversification across multiple assets that day). The plan calls for daily rebalancing, so the signal is evaluated and acted on every trading day. - What to expect in practice: In strong uptrends, if RSI signals don’t trigger oversold/overbought extremes, you may end up in metals/commodities rather than the most aggressive tech bets. In stressed markets, the model may allocate to UVXY or to a contrarian leveraged equity ETF when QQQ or SPY looks oversold, aiming to ride a rebound. The copper influence is notable; copper’s spike historically boosted performance, and removing copper from the metal basket reduces that lift. - Risks: Leveraged ETFs can be highly volatile and decay over time; using a single asset with daily rebalancing magnifies drawdowns if the signal misfires. The strategy is regime-dependent and sensitive to copper/industrial metals cycles. - In sum: It’s a highly tactical, signal-driven tilt among aggressive tech exposure, volatility hedges, and metals, driven by regime signals on major indices and a copper/commodities theme.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.81 vs 1.49, Calmar 5.93, annualized return 194% vs ~32% for SPY. Regime-driven shifts to leveraged tech, volatility, and copper/commodities offer big upside with disciplined risk controls.