Daily contrarian rotation into the single worst-performing metal ETF from a six-ETF universe (past 10 days), with equal-weighting logic and daily rebalancing. Backtested around 10% CAGR excluding 2014–2015. Exposure spans copper, gold, silver, palladium, platinum, and steel.

Every trading day, look at six metal-related ETFs: CPER (copper), GLD (gold), SLV (silver), PALL (palladium), PPLT (platinum), SLX (steel stocks). For the last 10 days, compute each ETF’s cumulative return. Rank from worst to best. Take the single worst performer (the bottom). Allocate 100% to that one ETF (since it’s only one asset, weighting is effectively full exposure). Rebalance daily so you always hold the laggard from the recent 10-day window. The idea is contrarian: buy what has underperformed recently in hope it rebounds. Risks include the lagging asset continuing to underperform, higher turnover costs, and regime changes where mean reversion may not occur.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 3.37 vs SPY 1.49; annualised oos return ~151% vs SPY ~32%; Calmar ~9.64. A disciplined laggard-rotation in metal ETFs aims for higher risk-adjusted upside than the S&P 500.