Mean Reversion Discovery | Short Backtest
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About
A tactical, mean‑reversion system: uses a 200‑day trend on SPY, buys 3× tech (TECL) on short‑term QQQ dips, buys a volatility fund (UVXY) on overbought spikes, and otherwise parks in T‑bills (SHV).
It first checks SPY (S&P 500 fund) vs its 200‑day average to label trend up or down. Signals use QQQ (cleaner); trades TECL to amplify.
RSI = a 0–100 short‑term “heat meter”: low=sold‑off, high=overheated.
Uptrend: if QQQ is sold‑off (RSI<42), buy TECL. If QQQ or SPY are overheated (RSI>80), buy UVXY (volatility fund that rises when stocks drop). Otherwise hold SHV (T‑bills).
Downtrend: only buy TECL on deeper dips (RSI<31); else SHV.
Out-of-sample annualized return: 25.15% vs SPY’s 19.16%, driven by regime-aware tech exposure and volatility hedges. Higher upside potential with compelling risk management (Calmar ~0.61), though drawdowns can exceed SPY in bad markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.69 | 0.09 | 0.3 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 798.42% | 15.79% | 1.72% | 4.21% | 0.96 | |
| 341,583.56% | 72.17% | 7.37% | 10.07% | 1.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$34,168,356.45Regulatory Fees
$61,313.22
Total Slippage
$571,845.41
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 11, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical timing, mean reversion, trend filter, technology (leveraged), volatility (vix futures), cash/t-bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total