Mean Reversion Discovery | Short Backtest
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
All‑in tactical strategy: in uptrends, buy 3× tech after short‑term selloffs, buy volatility when markets are overheated, otherwise sit in T‑bills. In downtrends, only buy 3× tech at extreme dips; else stay defensive.
SPY=S&P 500; QQQ=Nasdaq‑100 (tech‑heavy); TECL=3× tech bull; UVXY=volatility; SHV=short‑term Treasuries.
RSI(10) is a 0–100 gauge of recent up vs down days: low=oversold, high=overbought.
If SPY is above its 200‑day avg (uptrend): buy TECL when QQQ RSI<42; buy UVXY when QQQ or SPY RSI>80; else hold SHV.
If SPY is below its 200‑day avg: only buy TECL when QQQ RSI<31; else hold SHV.
All‑in to one choice; switch when signals change.
Regime-aware overlay on SPY: chase tech upside with TECL, hedge spikes with UVXY, and park in SHV. While out-of-sample returns lag SPY and drawdowns are larger, it adds diversification and a tactical risk-management sleeve to a core equity portfolio.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.51 | 0.68 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 681.5% | 15.36% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.94 | |
| 264,254.92% | 72.94% | 21.77% | 26.42% | 1.59 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$26,435,492.34Regulatory Fees
$60,143.54
Total Slippage
$420,962.69
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 11, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Mean reversion, trend filter, leveraged etfs, volatility trading, tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total