Mean Reversion Discovery | Short Backtest
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A tactical, mean‑reversion system: uses a 200‑day trend on SPY, buys 3× tech (TECL) on short‑term QQQ dips, buys a volatility fund (UVXY) on overbought spikes, and otherwise parks in T‑bills (SHV).
It first checks SPY (S&P 500 fund) vs its 200‑day average to label trend up or down. Signals use QQQ (cleaner); trades TECL to amplify.
RSI = a 0–100 short‑term “heat meter”: low=sold‑off, high=overheated.
Uptrend: if QQQ is sold‑off (RSI<42), buy TECL. If QQQ or SPY are overheated (RSI>80), buy UVXY (volatility fund that rises when stocks drop). Otherwise hold SHV (T‑bills).
Downtrend: only buy TECL on deeper dips (RSI<31); else SHV.
Out-of-sample return ~9.4% annually with Sharpe ~0.41 and Calmar ~0.23. A regime-aware mix of leveraged tech rebounds, VIX hedges, and cash seeks diversified risk and upside compared with plain S&P exposure.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 283,594.65% | 73.58% | 16.4% | 35.04% | 1.6 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$28,369,465.15Regulatory Fees
$63,248.92
Total Slippage
$443,062.10
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 11, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical timing, mean reversion, trend filter, technology (leveraged), volatility (vix futures), cash/t-bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total