Mean Reversion Discovery | Short Backtest
Today’s Change (Jun 23, 2026)
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About
A tactical, mean‑reversion system: uses a 200‑day trend on SPY, buys 3× tech (TECL) on short‑term QQQ dips, buys a volatility fund (UVXY) on overbought spikes, and otherwise parks in T‑bills (SHV).
It first checks SPY (S&P 500 fund) vs its 200‑day average to label trend up or down. Signals use QQQ (cleaner); trades TECL to amplify.
RSI = a 0–100 short‑term “heat meter”: low=sold‑off, high=overheated.
Uptrend: if QQQ is sold‑off (RSI<42), buy TECL. If QQQ or SPY are overheated (RSI>80), buy UVXY (volatility fund that rises when stocks drop). Otherwise hold SHV (T‑bills).
Downtrend: only buy TECL on deeper dips (RSI<31); else SHV.
Out-of-sample edge: ~23.4% annualized return vs SPY ~19.5%, with regime-aware bets (levered tech rebounds, volatility hedges) and cash to reduce risk. Higher upside potential, but be aware of larger drawdowns in stressed markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.09 | 0.3 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 758.38% | 15.77% | 0.09% | 13.88% | 0.96 | |
| 310,202.3% | 72.94% | 15.09% | 15.96% | 1.59 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$31,030,230.46Regulatory Fees
$56,948.78
Total Slippage
$533,244.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 11, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical timing, mean reversion, trend filter, technology (leveraged), volatility (vix futures), cash/t-bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total