A cautious, short-term trading strategy that mostly sits in T-bills, buys leveraged stock funds after sharp drops, and sometimes buys a fear/volatility fund when markets look overheated.

This strategy checks the market every day and only puts part of the money to work. It watches 3 areas: the broad U.S. stock market, big tech, and chip stocks. If one of those areas has fallen hard recently, it buys a boosted fund that bets on a rebound. If the market looks too hot, some of the money shifts into UVXY, a fund that usually rises when fear spikes. Otherwise it parks money in very short-term Treasury bills (BIL). As written, about 60% appears to stay in cash-like form, and the “black swan” switch currently does not change the holdings.

Out-of-sample edge: ~20.3% annualized return vs SPY ~19.9%, lower drawdown (13.9% vs 18.8%), solid Calmar ~1.46 and Sharpe ~1.09, beta ~0.54. Cash-heavy, opportunistic bets aim for upside with tempered risk.