Max Drawdown Black Swan Catcher
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A daily, tactical sleeve that tries to catch short bursts: buys volatility when stocks look overheated, buys 2x stock ETFs when they’re washed out, and otherwise sits in T‑Bills. Focuses on S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100, and semiconductors using short-term RSI signals.
1) Checks if the S&P 500 has fallen >6% from a recent high within 10 days (a quick, big drop).
2) Splits the sleeve into three mini-bots: S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100, semiconductors.
3) Each bot reads a 10‑day RSI (a 0–100 heat meter: >80 hot, <30 cold) on a 3x ETF to spot extremes.
4) If hot: S&P/Nasdaq bots buy UVXY (volatility). If cold: they buy 2x long ETFs (SSO/QLD). The semi bot buys 2x semis only when cold. Otherwise they park in T‑Bills (BIL).
Out-of-sample: ~19.5% annualized return with max drawdown ~13.9%, vs S&P ~20.8% and ~18.8% drawdown. Calmar ~1.40, Sharpe ~1.01—near-market upside with notably lower risk of big losses.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 685.88% | 15.41% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.94 | |
| 3,217.07% | 27.57% | 1.63% | 2.24% | 1.45 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$331,707.28Regulatory Fees
$603.55
Total Slippage
$3,237.49
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 22, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical timing, volatility timing, leveraged etfs, regime switch, risk-on/risk-off, short-term mean reversion
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks