Max Drawdown Black Swan Catcher
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Controls ~40% of the portfolio. Daily “buy the dip or hedge”: a 0–100 heat meter from 3× ETFs flags extremes—overheated → UVXY (volatility hedge), oversold → 2× S&P/Nasdaq/semis (SSO/QLD/USD), else T-bills (BIL). Active even during 10‑day >6% S&P drops.
Checks daily if the S&P 500 fell >6% in 10 days (a panic flag). Then runs 3 mini-bots on the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and semiconductors. Each uses a 0–100 “heat meter” (RSI) on a fast 3× ETF (SPXL, TQQQ, SOXL): >80 = too hot → buy UVXY (volatility hedge); <30 = too cold → buy a 2× fund (SSO, QLD, USD); otherwise sit in BIL (T-bills).
40% tactical sleeve designed to trim drawdowns and dampen volatility. Out-of-sample max drawdown ~13.9% vs ~18.8% for the S&P, Calmar ~1.40, and ~19.5% annualized return with beta ~0.57—providing steadier, risk-adjusted gains vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 3,242.53% | 27.56% | 0.91% | 2.89% | 1.46 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$334,252.88Regulatory Fees
$610.33
Total Slippage
$3,282.20
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 22, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, mean reversion, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, market timing, tail risk, equities, s&p 500, nasdaq-100, semiconductors, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks