Market Indicator: Gold vs Copper (Doesn't work well)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily binary rule: if RSI(GDX,5) > RSI(COPX,5) invest 100% in SPY; else invest 100% in BIL, using a gold-vs-copper momentum test to gauge market risk sentiment.
- It starts with full investable capital and a daily rebalance.
- It computes RSI using a 5-day window for two mining-themed ETFs: GDX (gold miners) and COPX (copper miners).
- If RSI(GDX,5) > RSI(COPX,5), the rule triggers buying SPY (an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, i.e., broad U.S. stocks).
- If RSI(GDX,5) <= RSI(COPX,5), the rule triggers buying BIL (an ETF of very short-term U.S. Treasury bills, i.e., cash-like).
- The position is a single choice (either SPY or BIL) with a 100/100 weight, meaning 100% of capital allocated to the chosen asset.
- Rebalancing happens daily.
- The strategy uses “Gold vs Copper” as a market indicator; higher gold-miner momentum relative to copper-miner momentum signals a risk-on stance (stock exposure), while the opposite signals a risk-off stance (cash).
- Tickers: SPY = broad U.S. equities; GDX = gold mining stocks; COPX = copper mining stocks; BIL = short-term Treasuries. The label notes the indicator may not perform well in practice.
A binary, rules-based strategy that shifts between SPY and cash (BIL) using gold-vs-copper momentum signals. Out-of-sample: ~4.8% annualized return with ~18.4% max drawdown—automatic downside protection and risk control while still capturing equity upside when signals favor stocks.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.77 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 694.49% | 14.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.87 | |
| 263.65% | 8.62% | -0.7% | 0.17% | 0.69 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$36,365.11Regulatory Fees
$449.61
Total Slippage
$3,031.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 25, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum-based, market timing, binary allocation