A market-timing strategy that is aggressive in healthy markets, but switches to defensive or hedged holdings—and sometimes buys sharp semiconductor dips—when market conditions weaken.

This strategy first asks: are regular U.S. stocks acting weaker than defensive stocks over the last few months? If no, it owns a growth-focused basket: insurance, medical devices, semiconductors, Wall Street firms, and a bet against the Japanese yen. If yes, it gets cautious. It then looks for extreme short-term selloffs to buy semiconductors for a rebound; otherwise it shifts toward safer or hedged positions like gold, utilities, staples, Treasuries, and funds that rise when certain stock markets fall.

Strong out-of-sample gains with risk control: OOS return ~53% vs S&P 17.8%, max drawdown ~6.6% vs 18.8%, Sharpe ~1.62 vs 1.10, Calmar ~8.0. Dynamic risk-on/risk-off with hedges aims for higher growth and milder drawdowns.