Long term (tested to end 2008) risk on risk off algo - basic etfs
Today’s Change (Jul 22, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily risk-on/risk-off ETF strategy. Uses SPY vs SPLV to set the regime. Risk-on: semis, brokers, insurance, medical devices, short yen. Risk-off: 2× semis on oversold signals, else rotate into gold/defensives or a mild risk mix via short-term trends.
Daily it checks: have low‑vol stocks (SPLV) beaten the S&P 500 (SPY) over ~75 days? If no, it’s risk‑on: hold KIE (insurance), IHI (medical devices), SOXX (semis), IAI (brokers), YCS (short yen).
If yes (risk‑off), it hunts rebounds: if tech (QQQ) or junk bonds (JNK) are oversold by RSI (a simple recent‑selling gauge), buy a fast 2× semis ETF (USD). Otherwise hold hedges (GLD, XLU, XLP, plus inverse ETFs) or a mild risk mix (SOXX, XLE, IEI) using short‑term trend checks (recent‑return averages).
Out-of-sample edge: ~65% annualized return vs ~18% for the S&P, max drawdown ~6% vs ~19%, Sharpe ~1.79 vs ~1.08. Superior risk-adjusted growth with clear downside protection from a disciplined risk-on/off regime.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.23 | 0.53 | 0.22 | 0.47 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 764.26% | 15.6% | 0.52% | 6.55% | 0.94 | |
| 7,844.43% | 34.19% | 0.23% | 14.87% | 1.63 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$794,442.83Regulatory Fees
$1,139.94
Total Slippage
$7,775.95
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/risk-off, tactical etfs, momentum, mean reversion, defensive hedging, long/short, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
EUM
ProShares Trust Short MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IAI
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IHI
iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF
Stocks
JNK
State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF
Stocks
KCE
State Street SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF
Stocks
KIE
State Street SPDR S&P Insurance ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks