A daily, rules-based Bitcoin strategy: hold GBTC only when long-, medium-, and short-term trends are up and the market isn’t overheated; otherwise sit in BIL (T‑bills). Includes a “bounce” circuit breaker to avoid shaky rallies.

This is a Bitcoin on/off switch. It owns Bitcoin via GBTC only when trends are strong: long‑term (100‑day vs 300‑day averages), medium‑term (recent returns), and short‑term (10‑ vs 20‑day) are all rising. It also avoids buying when gains look overheated (RSI is below 75) and skips sudden one‑day pops during weak trends (a bounce circuit breaker). Otherwise it parks in T‑Bills via BIL. Rebalanced daily.

Out-of-sample: 9.66% annualized return, 18.43% max drawdown, Calmar 0.52, Sharpe 0.47, beta 0.21; 631 days tested. A rules-based GBTC+T-Bill strategy with multi-timeframe trends and a bounce breaker—lower market beta and risk vs the S&P 500.