Leveraged Golden Butterfly (17% APY 44% DD) Since 1992
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A levered, three-ETF portfolio (36% UPRO stocks, 36% TYD bonds, 28% UGL gold) rebalanced quarterly to mimic a risk-balanced “Golden Butterfly”-style mix with amplified exposure. Aims for growth with controlled drawdown, but relies on leveraged ETFs, which can magnify losses and introduce path-dependent behavior. Not guaranteed; designed for long-horizon investors who can tolerate higher volatility and costs.
- Think of your money as three main ingredients: stocks, bonds, and gold. Instead of buying them in simple amounts, this strategy uses leveraged ETFs to amplify exposure: 36% goes to UPRO (which aims to deliver 3 times the daily movement of the S&P 500), 36% to TYD (which aims to deliver 3 times the daily movement of long-term Treasuries), and 28% to UGL (which aims to deliver 2 times the daily movement of gold).
- How it’s built: The plan starts with those exact weights (36/36/28). Every quarter, you rebalance back to those targets. If stocks rally, you sell some of the winners and buy the laggards to return to 36/36/28; if bonds or gold move, you adjust similarly.
- Why these three: Stocks provide growth, long-duration bonds provide ballast during risk-off periods, and gold adds an inflation hedge and crisis protection. The leverage increases both upside and downside, making the portfolio more aggressive than a traditional mix but still aiming for a balance across growth, safety, and hedging.
- What you’re buying: UPRO = ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (3x daily S&P 500), TYD = Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares (3x daily moves of long bonds), UGL = ProShares Ultra Gold (2x daily gold).
- What “quarterly rebalance” means: Every three months you readjust the holdings so the proportions are back to 36/36/28, regardless of market moves. This helps keep the intended risk mix in place.
- What to expect: The APY and drawdown figures are historical/backtested estimates. Real results depend on market paths, leverage behavior, and costs. Levered ETFs can underperform expectations during choppy markets due to compounding effects and fees.
- Practical notes: Fees, taxes, and the ease of trading leveraged ETFs matter. This strategy is more suitable for investors with a long time horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility and complexity.
Out-of-sample edge: ~41.8% annualized return vs 21.4% S&P; Sharpe ~1.74 vs 1.33; Calmar ~2.04— stronger risk-adjusted gains from a levered, diversified three-asset mix. Note: leverage can amplify drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 0.89 | 0.51 | 0.71 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 878.4% | 14.64% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.88 | |
| 2,307.59% | 21% | -2.07% | 4.89% | 1 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$240,759.23Regulatory Fees
$9.98
Total Slippage
$51.85
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 8, 2023
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged multi-asset, risk-parity style, quarterly rebalance, etf-based, gold hedge