Least fit overfit
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules-based, multi‑asset plan: leans into tech-heavy growth when markets are calm, pivots to bonds, cash, dollar, staples, and gold when volatility rises, follows trends in commodities/gold, and can opportunistically bet against long‑duration bonds when rates climb.
It shifts money among stocks, bonds, cash, gold, the U.S. dollar, and commodities based on how “jumpy” prices have been and on simple 2–4 month trends. Calm stocks → a 2x tech-leaning fund. Jumpy stocks → broad stocks plus hedges (staples, a market‑neutral hedge, cash). Bonds rotate between longer/shorter Treasuries, with levered long‑Treasuries only when calm; otherwise it parks in cash/dollar/gold/staples. It can briefly bet against long bonds if rates are rising.
Out-of-sample: higher risk-adjusted return, lower drawdowns, and less market beta than the S&P. Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.40; max drawdown 10.1% vs 18.8%; Calmar 2.07; positive out-of-sample alpha; diversified multi-asset strategy for smoother growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.7 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 493.85% | 14.28% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.88 | |
| 623.57% | 15.99% | 2.57% | 3.89% | 1.28 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$72,357.37Regulatory Fees
$95.36
Total Slippage
$513.96
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 19, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset tactical, volatility regime-switching, trend-following, defensive hedges, bond rotation, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
LQD
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks