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Symphonies
Least fit overfit
Today’s Change
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A rules‑based, all‑weather portfolio. It goes on offense with QLD (levered tech) when stocks are calm and shifts to defense (staples, cash‑like Treasuries, gold, US dollar, anti‑beta) when choppy. Bonds and commodities are managed by trend and volatility rules.
NutHow it works
- 35% stocks: If markets are calm, buy QLD (2x tech‑heavy Nasdaq‑100). If choppy, split across SPY (US stocks), BTAL (defensive long/short), XLP (consumer staples). - 30% bonds: Mix Treasuries, TIPS, and corporates. If long Treasuries are calm, add TMF (3x long) with short‑term Treasuries; if choppy, hold SHY plus UUP (US dollar), GLD (gold), XLP. Also a small trend picker among cash, long Treas, high yield, gold, dollar, and a 3–7y Treasury anchor. - 20% inflation hedge: Rotate between staples and a defensive mix (UUP/SHV/BTAL/GLD); trend‑pick DBC (commodities) or GLD vs cash/dollar; may short long Treasuries via TMV (3x inverse) when rates rise, else hold VTIP (short‑term TIPS). - 15% overlay: Own the 2 strongest (by ~4‑month trend) of SPY, TLT, GLD, DBC, UUP, SHV.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample, this all‑weather strategy outperforms the S&P on risk. Sharpe ~1.51 vs 1.40; Calmar ~2.07; max drawdown ~10% vs ~19%. It favors tech in calm markets and hedges in choppy periods for steadier, resilient growth.

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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 19, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
All-weather tactical, multi-asset, volatility-switching, momentum, inflation hedge, bonds, commodities, gold, usd, defensive factor, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
LQD
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

"Least fit overfit" is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

"Least fit overfit" is currently allocated toTIP, IEF, TMF, VTIP, UUP, DBC, HYG, SHY, LQD, QLD, IEI, GLDandXLP. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, "Least fit overfit" has returned 19.07%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for "Least fit overfit" is 10.09%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in "Least fit overfit", simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.