Layer 3: Bull Market (v 1.3.a) | Less VIX + VOO 60/40 | BT Oct 2011 AR 59.5 MD 16.3 V 23.4
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A multi-layer, momentum-driven strategy that picks one ETF from a pool (including levered options) to ride a bull market, with hedges (UVXY, GLD, UUP) and a 60/40 core (VOO/BIL) for risk control. Levered bets aim for big upside in strong trends, hedges help limit drawdowns during volatility spikes.
- The system operates in layers. Layer 3 assesses whether the market appears bullish enough to tilt toward higher-risk, momentum-driven exposure. If yes, it moves to Fund Surf or the 60/40 core; if not, it maintains the conservative sleeve.
- Fund Surf is a “select one” mechanism: among a basket (SHY, QQQ, QQQ-related inverses, and levered plays like TQQQ, SPXL, SOXL, etc.), it ranks candidates by a momentum measure over about 20 trading days and picks the one with the favorable signal to own 100% of capital for that sleeve. Some branches show, in effect, multiple Option A/B/C paths with either levered or non-levered selections.
- The selection is guided by momentum metrics (RSI), price relative strength, and comparisons to moving averages. The goal is to own the top-performing ETF in the group on a given signal. Levered options (e.g., TQQQ, SPXL, SOXL) aim to amplify gains in a strong trend but carry correspondingly higher risk. Non-levered options (like QQQ) provide a steadier ride.
- Layer 4 adds hedges: the “Standard Volatility Hedge” uses GLD (gold) and UUP (US dollar) with a volatility-window lookback, intended to dampen drawdowns during stress periods. A separate UVXY-based structure acts as a volatility hedge when momentum indicators signal extreme conditions (e.g., very high RSI readings suggesting overbought momentum or rising fear).
- The 60/40 sleeve is a core ballast: 60% in VOO (broad market) and 40% in BIL (short-term Treasuries) to provide a dampened, less volatile backbone when conditions are uncertain or risk-off signals prevail.
- The whole strategy is described as “Less VIX + VOO 60/40” in one variant name, indicating a version that reduces explicit volatility bets in favor of a more traditional core plus selective exposure tactic. Rebalancing is not aggressively enforced in the described setup, so positions tend to stay on until a new signal prompts a change.
- In plain terms: when the market looks strong, pick one ETF with momentum (possibly leveraging to magnify gains) and own it; when risk rises or momentum becomes extreme, add hedges and/or revert to a safer 60/40 core. The approach mixes opportunity (through one-choice, momentum-driven ETF exposure) with risk control (volatility and hedge layers plus a conservative core).
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~3.00 vs SPY ~2.82; annualized return ~39.8% vs 37.3%; Calmar ~7.26. Momentum-driven, hedged, levered exposure with a 60/40 core aims for higher risk-adjusted gains than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.7 | 0.29 | 0.54 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 29,962.76% | 48.72% | -0.31% | 2.55% | 1.93 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,006,276.45Regulatory Fees
$3,896.41
Total Slippage
$25,954.94
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 30, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, tactical allocation, momentum, hedging, leveraged etfs, multi-layer strategy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks