Layer 3: Bull Market (v 1.1)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily-rebalanced bull-market system that picks a single ETF (SPY/QQQ or levered variants) using momentum screens, with volatility and currency/gold hedges (UVXY, UUP, GLD) as risk controls. It uses a Fund Surf mechanism to select the main holding and Layer 4 hedges to guard against volatility, combining leverage, momentum, and regime guards.
- The system runs daily and operates in a Bull Market regime. Its core idea is to pick one main ETF to hold each day rather than diversify across many assets.
-“Fund Surf” is the engine that chooses between broad-market or tech-heavy exposures (and levered variants). There are pools of candidates (e.g., SPY vs QQQ, and a Levered pool with TQQQ and SPXL, plus SHY as a defensive option).
- Within each pool, the mechanism ranks assets by a momentum rule (relative strength) over a 20-day window and selects the one with the strongest signal in the intended sense (often the bottom RSI within a group, effectively picking the member with lower recent momentum in some branches). That chosen asset is then given full weight (100/100) for the day.
- In addition to the core Fund Surf allocation, there are conditional hedges. If certain momentum or price conditions trigger, the strategy shifts toward volatility hedges (UVXY) or hedges based on the US dollar index (UUP) and gold (GLD). These hedges typically use rules tied to recent performance (e.g., RSI checks on levered or non-levered ETFs) and price-relative criteria (e.g., current price relative to moving averages like 200-day or moving-average price).
- The volatility hedge block (Layer 4) uses a separate weighting mechanism (wt-inverse-vol) for UUP/GLD, usually conditioned on volatility signals and a 30-day window, to reduce equity exposure during stressed periods.
- The scheme uses a mix of indicators (RSI, cumulative returns, moving-average comparisons) to decide whether to stay with a growth tilt (SPY/TQQQ/SPXL) or pivot toward hedges (UVXY, UUP/GLD) and/or treasury exposure (SHY) in a non-levered path.
- The design expects daily rebalancing and relies on a potential preference for “the best single asset” at any time, rather than multi-asset diversification in a single day.
- Assets involved include SPY (broad market), QQQ (tech-heavy Nasdaq), TQQQ (3x QQQ), SPXL (3x SPY), UVXY (volatility), SHY (short-duration Treasuries), UUP (dollar), and GLD (gold). The strategy aims to capture upside during bull phases while hedging or dampening risk when volatility spikes.
Out-of-sample, this bull-market momentum strategy delivers ~55% annualized return vs SPY's ~22%, with stronger risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe ~1.60, Calmar ~1.71). Uses hedges to curb volatility; note larger max drawdown (~32% vs ~19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 | 0.63 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 603.28% | 14.54% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.89 | |
| 3,191,632.81% | 105.76% | -0.84% | 1.81% | 1.83 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$319,173,280.71Regulatory Fees
$905,953.27
Total Slippage
$6,496,966.99
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 22, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Bull market strategy, momentum-based selection, fund surfing, leveraged etfs, volatility hedging, regime-driven allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks