KMLM trend v1 | BT 30 Dec 2020
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A tactical, rules-based rotation that uses the S&P 500’s trend, KMLM’s short-term trend, and a “heat meter” (RSI) to switch among 3x tech/semis, a defensive trio (BTAL/SPLV/IEF), volatility (VIXY), short bonds (TMV), or short tech (TECS).
It’s a rules-based switch. 1) Is the S&P 500 above its 200‑day average? If yes, market uptrend. 2) Use KMLM (a managed‑futures fund) vs its 20‑day average to gauge macro stress. 3) A heat meter (RSI, 0–100) judges if prices are too hot, cold, or normal: too hot → move to VIXY or a defensive mix (BTAL/SPLV/IEF); very cold → bargain buys (TECL or SPXL); otherwise pick the stronger of TECL or SOXL. In downtrends it may also short tech (TECS) or short long bonds (TMV).
OOS: ~11% annualized return vs SPY ~18%; Sharpe ~0.51 vs ~1.03; max drawdown ~57% vs ~19%. A diversified, rules-based rotation with hedges (VIXY, defense) to navigate regime shifts alongside SPY.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 27, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical rotation, trend-following, momentum, mean-reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, defensive tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPLV
Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TECS
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks