KMLM trend v1 | BT 30 Dec 2020
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based switcher using SPY’s 200‑day trend and KMLM’s 20‑day trend as dials. It rotates among 3× tech bulls, volatility, inverse bonds, a defensive trio, or a 3× tech bear, with an RSI “heat gauge” to avoid chasing and to buy deep dips.
Regime: SPY above its 200‑day avg = offense; below = defense. RSI (0–100 heat gauge) guides timing: too hot → VIXY; very cold in downtrends → buy dips. KMLM vs its 20‑day avg flips the core: if weak → risk‑on (pick stronger of TECL or SOXL); if firm → defensive (BTAL/TMV, or BTAL+SPLV+IEF; sometimes TECS). Tickers: TECL/SOXL/SPXL=3× tech/semis/S&P; TECS=3× short tech; VIXY=vol; TMV=3× short bonds; BTAL=anti‑beta; SPLV=low‑vol S&P; IEF=7–10y; KMLM=managed‑futures signal.
Regime-aware rotation among tech, volatility, anti-beta, and defensives seeks tech rally upside with diversification. OOS: ~10.9% annualized; Sharpe ~0.51 vs SPY ~1.03. Note: higher bear-market drawdowns, but hedges help risk-off.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 27, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, managed-futures signal
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPLV
Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TECS
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks