KMLM trend v1 | BT 30 Dec 2020
Today’s Change (Apr 15, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical, rules-based rotation that uses the S&P 500’s trend, KMLM’s short-term trend, and a “heat meter” (RSI) to switch among 3x tech/semis, a defensive trio (BTAL/SPLV/IEF), volatility (VIXY), short bonds (TMV), or short tech (TECS).
It’s a rules-based switch. 1) Is the S&P 500 above its 200‑day average? If yes, market uptrend. 2) Use KMLM (a managed‑futures fund) vs its 20‑day average to gauge macro stress. 3) A heat meter (RSI, 0–100) judges if prices are too hot, cold, or normal: too hot → move to VIXY or a defensive mix (BTAL/SPLV/IEF); very cold → bargain buys (TECL or SPXL); otherwise pick the stronger of TECL or SOXL. In downtrends it may also short tech (TECS) or short long bonds (TMV).
Regime‑aware, rules‑based rotation (OOS tested) across tech, defensives, volatility and bonds. It may lag SPY on pure returns, but adds diversification, hedges, and potential downside protection—a valuable complement to an SPY core.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | 1.17 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.54% | 14.13% | 4.09% | 0.87% | 0.86 | |
| 137,208.6% | 294.33% | -7.6% | 17.7% | 2.35 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$13,730,859.61Regulatory Fees
$54,763.11
Total Slippage
$378,521.30
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 27, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical rotation, trend-following, momentum, mean-reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, defensive tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPLV
Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TECS
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks