KMLM TQQQ Test
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A rule-based, momentum-driven strategy that mostly targets leveraged tech exposure (TQQQ) when tech momentum looks favorable, using RSI signals on XLK, QQQ, and other assets as gates. It uses hedges (VIXY, SQQQ) and diversifiers (SPY, GLD) when signals weaken, and it scales exposure with explicit weights (e.g., a 15% tilt to TQQQ in certain paths). The “KMLM” gate serves as a momentum threshold to decide whether to pursue the leveraged tech tilt, with a special path for a rapid TQQQ move when KMLM conditions pop. Positions are generally not aggressively rebalanced, focusing on conditional switches rather than constant turnover.
Think of this as a smart switchboard for your money. It watches several simple momentum signals and then chooses where to put your dollars among a few assets. The core idea is to bet on tech momentum using TQQQ (leveraged exposure to tech), but only when the signals say tech is strong enough. Specifically:
- A gate uses XLK’s momentum against a threshold called KMLM. If XLK looks strong enough (RSI higher than KMLM), the system considers a TQQQ move.
- There is a secondary screen using QQQ’s momentum (RSI over a 10-day window). If QQQ looks oversold (RSI below about 30), the system tilts into TQQQ, aiming to ride a rebound in tech.
- If the primary gate or the secondary screen aren’t favorable, the rules step into hedges or other assets (VIXY for volatility, SPY for broad market, SQQQ for inverse exposure, and GLD for gold) to reduce risk or diversify.
- A numeric gate called KMLM acts as a dial: if XLK’s momentum exceeds KMLM, you may enter a leveraged tech tilt; otherwise you stay in cash or hedges.
- There are specialized branches labeled like “Single Popped KMLM” that appear to trigger a more direct TQQQ tilt when a KMLM condition is met.
- Weights in the rules (for example, 15/100) show the intended capital allocation to a given asset in that branch. Rebalance settings vary by branch; some paths keep positions fixed until the next signal, rather than continually rebalancing.
- In practice, you’d see this as: if tech leadership looks strong and tech momentum isn’t extremely overbought, lean into leveraged tech; if not, shift toward hedges or cash to manage risk.
- RSI is explained in simple terms: it’s a number that roughly measures recent price momentum. RSI above ~70 suggests recent strength; below ~30 suggests weakness or a potential rebound. The strategy uses a 10-day RSI window for these checks.
- ETFs involved: TQQQ (tech leverage), SQQQ (inverse leverage), QQQ (tech exposure), XLK (tech sector), SPY (overall market), VIXY (volatility exposure), GLD (gold as a safe-haven).
- The overall posture appears to be a conditional rotation system rather than a single buy-and-hold signal, with specific emphasis on timing leverage entry using momentum signals and gating with KMLM.
Compelling upside and risk control: Out-of-sample annualized return ~123.8% vs SPY ~44.2%, Calmar ~7.6, and Sharpe ~2.10 with hedges. Higher drawdowns (~16%) are the price for potential tech-led gains when momentum spikes.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.32 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94.96% | 13.63% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.84 | |
| 57,214.32% | 237.11% | 5.82% | 23.02% | 2.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$5,731,431.84Regulatory Fees
$7,588.89
Total Slippage
$50,753.48
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 10, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum, leveraged etfs, sector rotation, multi-asset hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks