KMLM Switcher Testfolio - No Shorts
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
A daily “switcher” using SPY’s 10‑day heat score (RSI) and a tech‑vs‑managed‑futures tiebreaker. It rotates 100% into TQQQ (leveraged tech), TLT (long Treasuries), or BIL (T‑bills). Risky when in TQQQ; avoids shorts.
RSI(10) = 0–100 score of recent buying vs selling over ~2 weeks.
Each day:
- If SPY (S&P 500) RSI > 80: park in BIL (1–3 mo T‑bills).
- Else if SPY RSI < 30: buy TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100 tech).
- Else compare RSI of XLK (tech) vs KMLM (managed‑futures trends): if XLK higher buy TQQQ, else buy TLT (20+ yr Treasuries).
Daily rebalance. No shorts.
Out-of-sample edge: ~101.5% annualized return vs ~30% for S&P; Sharpe ~1.45; Calmar ~4.48. Expect higher drawdowns (~22.7% vs 13.7%), but capture big upside in favorable regimes via dynamic tech/bonds/cash switching, no shorting.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | 1.92 | 0.45 | 0.67 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98.01% | 14.06% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.86 | |
| 3,956.85% | 103.98% | 1.83% | 2.1% | 1.72 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$405,685.24Regulatory Fees
$669.60
Total Slippage
$4,309.40
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 13, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, momentum, rsi, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, treasuries, cash, managed futures, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total
Ticker
Type