KMLM Switcher Testfolio
Today’s Change (Jul 22, 2026)
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About
A daily switch that parks in T‑Bills when the S&P 500 is overheated, buys 3x Nasdaq on washouts or strong tech momentum, rotates to long Treasuries if trends look weak, and otherwise shorts the Nasdaq with -3x exposure.
Checks daily. Uses RSI (0–100 gauge of recent buying/selling speed) on SPY (S&P 500) and XLK (US tech), plus a 20-day average on KMLM (a managed-futures trend ETF). If SPY is very hot (RSI>80) hold BIL (T-Bills). Else if very washed-out (RSI<30) buy TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100). Else if tech beats KMLM on RSI, buy TQQQ. Else if KMLM is below its 20-day average, buy TLT (long Treasuries). Otherwise short Nasdaq with SQQQ (-3x).
Out-of-sample the strategy delivers higher risk-adjusted returns than SPY: Sharpe ~1.48 vs 1.37, Calmar ~4.0, and ~112% annualized return vs ~26% SPY, with disciplined regime-switching among cash, 3x Nasdaq, Treasuries, and inverse Nasdaq.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.41 | 0.33 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116.64% | 15% | 0.52% | 6.55% | 0.92 | |
| 102,988.66% | 250.52% | -12.07% | 11.67% | 2.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$10,308,865.83Regulatory Fees
$11,353.07
Total Slippage
$102,090.80
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 13, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical timing,momentum (rsi),trend filter,leveraged etfs,risk-on/risk-off,daily rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks