KMLM switcher (single pops)| BT 4/13/22
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A high-risk, single-position tactical rotation around KMLM, using RSI/momentum signals to flip between volatility hedges (UVXY/SVIX) and aggressive leveraged bets on tech and managed-futures (TECL, SOXL, SPXL, KMLM), with a Long/Short Rotator module for hedging. No daily rebalance; one winner at a time.
- It is a single-position, non-rebalancing system. When a signal fires, you allocate all capital to the chosen asset (100/100) and stay there until another signal triggers a switch. The corridor width of 0.1 keeps changes relatively conservative given the high-risk toolkit.
- The decision tree mainly uses momentum signals (relative strength indexes) on a set of market proxies to decide which engine to run. If a short-term momentum gauge on a market proxy (like QQQE) is very high (RSI above roughly 79), the system moves into UVXY (volatility exposure) as a hedge against a potential spike in volatility or a sharp move.
- If those UVXY-triggering conditions aren’t met, the tree evaluates other assets in a nested fashion (VTV, VOX, TECL, TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL, XLP, etc.) to determine the best next engine. The exact path is a long chain of if-else statements, but the intent is to favor either volatility hedges or aggressive tech/beta bets depending on momentum signals.
- A dedicated Long/Short Rotator subgroup rotates among a broader mix of assets (TMV, TMF, SVXY, VIXM, FTLS, KMLM, UUP) using a volatility/return screen (standard-deviation-return over a short window) to assemble a small, risk-managed subset. This module adds a hedge/tilt within the overall strategy and provides more nuance beyond a single engine.
- The assets involved include: UVXY (volatility leverager), SVIX (inverse to VIX futures), SVXY (inverse VIX futures), TECL and SOXL (leveraged tech exposure), SPXL (leveraged S&P 500), TQQQ (another leveraged tech proxy), SPXL-like names, UUP (usd), TMV/TMF (bonds), FTLS (long/short equity), and KMLM (the main managed-futures exposure around which the switcher is framed). The goal is to exploit trends in tech, manage risk with volatility hedges, and occasionally tilt toward a managed-futures feel via KMLM, all through a tightly controlled, single-position framework rather than a diversified, multi-asset sleeve.
One-position, momentum-driven rotation around KMLM that bets on strong trends (tech/leverage) and hedges with volatility tools. Out-of-sample: ~46.6% annualized return, ~0.92 Sharpe, 1.69 Calmar, and ~27.5% max drawdown—aiming to beat the S&P with disciplined risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 1.38 | 0.15 | 0.39 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.47% | 12.7% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.77 | |
| 34,008.11% | 345.31% | 3.57% | 8.62% | 2.73 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,410,811.38Regulatory Fees
$10,524.23
Total Slippage
$69,182.49
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 13, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged/inverse etfs, volatility hedges, momentum/rsi signals, single-position rotation, kmlm-driven strategy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 23 assets in total
Ticker
Type
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
FTLS
First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVIX
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks