Kipnis Defensive Adaptive Asset Allocation Approximation
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Rules-based, monthly rotation. Ranks major asset classes by recent performance and holds the top five. Uses two simple “warning lights” to cut risk, moving into Treasuries or T‑bills when conditions weaken. Aims to participate in uptrends and defend in downturns.
Once a month, it checks the last 30 days. If conditions look healthy (two “warning lights” based on emerging‑market stocks and the broad US bond market are both green), it holds the five strongest areas among stocks (US/Europe/Japan/EM), real estate, Treasuries, commodities, and gold—split evenly. If warnings flash, it shifts part or all into Treasuries or short‑term T‑bills.
Out-of-sample, this adaptive monthly-rotation strategy delivers higher risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500 with far smaller drawdowns: 31.5% vs 29.3% annualized, 3.8% vs 13.7% max drawdown, Sharpe ~3.09 vs ~1.41, Calmar ~8.24.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.47 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 519.21% | 10.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.59 | |
| 225.93% | 6.5% | 1.75% | 11.12% | 0.66 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$32,593.03Regulatory Fees
$75.22
Total Slippage
$473.99
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 8, 2025
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, momentum, defensive, global multi-asset, rules-based
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EWJ
iShares MSCI Japan ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
RWX
State Street SPDR Dow Jones International Real Estate ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks