Kipnis Defensive Adaptive Asset Allocation Approximation
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Monthly, split between winners and safety. Half goes to the 5 best recent performers across global stocks, REITs, Treasuries, commodities, and gold; the other half sits in Treasuries if trending up, else T‑Bills. If both stocks and bonds are weak, go fully to safety.
Every month: 1) Look at the last ~1 month of returns. If both stocks (EEM) and bonds (AGG) look weak, hold only safety: IEF if rising, else BIL (T‑Bills). 2) Otherwise, put 50% into the 5 best performers among SPY (US stocks), VGK (Europe), EWJ (Japan), EEM (emerging), VNQ (US REITs), RWX (intl REITs), IEF/TLT (Treasuries), DBC (commodities), GLD (gold); and 50% into IEF if rising, else BIL.
An easy, rules-based monthly strategy blending top-5 recent winners with a safety sleeve. Out-of-sample: ~31.5% annual return vs 29.3% for SPY, max drawdown ~3.8% vs 13.7%, Sharpe ~3.09, Calmar ~8.24 — better risk-adjusted growth than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.47 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 532.45% | 10.35% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.6 | |
| 225.32% | 6.5% | 2.77% | 10.91% | 0.66 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$32,531.99Regulatory Fees
$75.22
Total Slippage
$473.99
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 8, 2025
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, global macro, momentum, trend-following, defensive, risk management, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EWJ
iShares MSCI Japan ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
RWX
State Street SPDR Dow Jones International Real Estate ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks