A trend-following, hedged equity strategy that uses QQQ’s trend to switch between a fixed Kensico 13F stock basket (with explicit weights) and a hedge with PSQ, aiming to capture upside in up markets and limit losses in down markets while maintaining a cash-equivalent discipline and minimal automatic rebalancing.

- The model runs in two regimes: Risk-On and Risk-Off. - It decides which regime to use by looking at QQQ’s price relative to its long-term trend (a moving-average rule: is QQQ above/below its average over a given window?). If QQQ is above its long-term average, the system treats it as an upbeat signal; if below, it treats it as a downbeat signal. - In Risk-On (uptrend): you allocate cash evenly across the assets in the active equity basket (primarily the Kensico 13F holdings and related large-cap names). The main components include a mixed bag of high-profile U.S. stocks (e.g., Microsoft MSFT, Apple AAPL, Amazon AMZN, Alphabet GOOGL, Visa V, Meta META, UnitedHealth UNH, Pfizer PFE is not listed here, etc.), plus a modest inclusion of QQQ itself and a hedge asset PSQ (the latter is there to provide protection if the market starts to weaken). The Kensico 13F list assigns explicit weights to individual stocks (for example, MSFT around 7.2%, V around 7.1%, META around 6%, etc., down to smaller positions like AAPL 1%, FWONK 0.7%, and QQQ 6.6%). A few names on the list include HWM, FICO, MSFT, V, META, EFX, FISV, GOOGL, CRM, AMZN, LNG, TSM, ICE, UBER, PGR, MCK, UNH, BC, AAPL, FWONK, and QQQ. PSQ is included as a potential hedge, which means it can be held alongside the stock basket when appropriate. The system uses a fixed 100% cash-equivalent weight distributed across these assets in the active basket. - In Risk-Off (downtrend): you tilt toward the protective hedge PSQ (short QQQ) and may reduce exposure to the Kensico 13F stocks. This regime is designed to protect against downside by benefiting from declines in the technology/QQQ exposure. There is a secondary “Dynamic Hedging for Risk-Off” overlay that can kick in when the downtrend starts turning up, which helps re-enter risk assets gradually as conditions improve. The decision structure uses nested conditions (groupings and sub-conditions) to determine whether to place hedge and equity bets and in what mix. - Rebalancing: the corridor width is 0.1, but the instruction says rebalance is none, implying signals trigger reallocation rather than periodic rebalancing. The emphasis is on reacting to regime switches rather than continuous churn. - Purpose: to participate in upside when tech/market conditions are favorable while introducing a hedge to reduce losses during market weakness, using a clearly defined set of stocks (Kensico 13F) and a hedge ETF (PSQ) anchored to QQQ.

Out-of-sample: ~2.67% annual return vs S&P ~10.76%, but hedges with PSQ to limit drawdowns and diversify when tech markets falter. Calmar ~0.54 signals risk control even with lower upside — a strategic hedge for risk-aware investors.