Kearsarge - 13% Threshold + v4 Pops + Commodity Momentum (#COMMO)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules‑based, tech‑tilted trend strategy with fast drawdown control. Chases strength when trends are healthy; after big pops or rising fear it hedges or goes defensive (bills, Treasuries, gold, dollar, volatility ETFs). Uses leveraged funds—high risk, tactical use only.
Goal: ride strong uptrends (mainly tech) and cut risk fast in turmoil. It watches simple gauges: RSI (0–100 ‘heat’ score), trend (price vs moving average), and volatility (VIX funds rising/falling), plus bond‑vs‑stock strength. Risk‑on: uses TECL/TQQQ/SOXL (leveraged tech/semis). After huge 1‑day pops it briefly buys UVXY as an airbag. Risk‑off: shifts to T‑Bills (BIL/SHV), Treasuries (IEF/TLT/TMF), gold (GLD), dollar (UUP), defensive sectors, anti‑beta (BTAL), or VIX funds (VIXM/SVXY). A small sleeve rotates among stocks/bonds/gold/commodities by ~4‑month returns.
Out-of-sample, this strategy offers dramatically better risk control: Sharpe 2.05 vs 1.44; Calmar 3.12; max drawdown 6.5% vs 18.8%. Annualized return ~20.4% vs S&P ~23%, delivering stronger risk-adjusted gains and diversification.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89.23% | 22.34% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 1.41 | |
| 90.39% | 22.58% | 2.86% | 4.66% | 2.26 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$19,038.89Regulatory Fees
$47.65
Total Slippage
$282.67
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 13%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation,multi-asset,momentum,trend-following,volatility-hedged,defensive,leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 45 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BLV
Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF
Stocks
BOXX
Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares
Stocks