Kearsarge - 13% Threshold - Replace BOXX w/ USDU + v4 Pops + Commodity Momentum (#COMMO)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based, multi-asset portfolio: presses 3× tech in healthy uptrends, but quickly flips to T‑Bills, Treasuries, gold, the U.S. dollar, or volatility hedges when markets overheat or fear rises. Uses leveraged/VIX ETFs; high risk, highly tactical.
Built from sleeves that switch using simple gauges: RSI (a 0–100 heat score), big 1‑day jumps, and trend (price vs its moving average). In calm uptrends it leans into 3× tech (TECL/TQQQ). When markets overheat or fear rises, it moves to T‑Bills (BIL) or buys crash‑insurance (UVXY/VIXM). Bonds are held only when their trend improves; otherwise it holds the U.S. dollar (UUP/USDU). A small sleeve buys recent winners in gold/commodities. Rebalances only if weights drift ~13%.
Out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted returns with far smaller drawdowns vs the S&P 500. Sharpe ~2.04 vs ~1.44; Calmar ~3.10; max drawdown ~6.6% vs ~18.8%; ~20.3% annualized upside with hedges and tech in uptrends.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 13%
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, tactical allocation, momentum/trend, mean reversion, volatility hedging, leveraged etfs, commodities, bonds, defensive sleeves
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 45 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BLV
Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks