Kearsarge - 13% Threshold - Replace BOXX w/ USDU + v4 Pops + Commodity Momentum (#COMMO)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A rule-based, risk-on/risk-off portfolio. It rides tech uptrends with a 3x ETF when markets are calm, but quickly pivots to volatility hedges, cash, bonds, gold, dollar, and managed futures when stress rises. Uses RSI, trend, VIX, and drawdown triggers.
Built as sleeves.
- Offense: buys 3x tech (TECL) only when Nasdaq is trending up or after sharp dips; else holds T‑bills (BIL).
- Defense: if the “fear index” (VIX) rises, it buys VIX funds (UVXY/VIXM) or shifts to cash, gold, staples, bonds, dollar, managed futures.
- Bonds: owns bond types in uptrends; if not, holds the US dollar (USDU/UUP).
Signals: RSI (0–100 speed/heat), moving‑average trends, big 1‑day “pops,” and drawdowns.
Rebalances only after ~13% drift.
Out-of-sample: higher risk-adjusted performance and far lower drawdown vs S&P 500. OOS Sharpe 2.04 vs 1.44; Calmar 3.10; max drawdown 6.6% vs 18.8%; resilient growth with tech upside and hedges.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 13%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, volatility hedging, leveraged etfs, trend/momentum, risk-on/risk-off, multi-asset, defensive overlays
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 45 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BLV
Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks