A daily market-timing strategy that usually holds blue-chip U.S. stocks, hedges with volatility when markets look overheated, and turns defensive—or bets on a sharp tech rebound—when the market trend weakens.

Each day, the strategy first asks: is the U.S. stock market in a long-term uptrend? It checks whether SPY (a fund tracking the S&P 500) is above its 200-day average price. If yes, it usually buys DIA, a fund holding 30 large “blue-chip” U.S. companies. But if the market or key sectors have surged too far too fast, it switches to VIXY, a fund that tends to rise when market fear and volatility jump. If no, it becomes more defensive. If tech stocks look extremely beaten down, it buys TECL, an aggressive leveraged technology fund, to bet on a rebound. Otherwise, it buys DIA if the market is recovering short-term, or BTAL, a defensive fund, if weakness continues.

Out-of-sample annualized return ~35% vs S&P ~20%; Calmar ~1.36; beta ~0.96. Regime-switching with volatility hedges seeks higher upside in uptrends while tightening risk in downturns. Caveat: max drawdown larger (25.7% vs 18.8%).