A daily, rule-based tilt between high-beta levered longs (SOXL, TQQQ, TECL, SVXY) in strong markets and bear/volatility hedges (TECS, SQQQ, SOXS, UVXY) in weak or choppy markets, guided by SPY trend signals, RSI momentum, and recent performance, with Treasury ballast and cash-equal weighting within selected groups.

What the strategy tries to do in simple terms: on each trading day, it looks at whether the market (as proxied by SPY) looks favorable. If the market is up and trending (based on price vs its own moving averages) and momentum signals show room to run (RSI on a popular Nasdaq/QQQ measure is not overbought), it puts your money into a cluster of high-beta, levered bets on tech and semiconductors (things that tend to do well in a strong market): SOXL (semiconductors), TQQQ (QQQ-based 3x), TECL (technology 3x), and a volatility hedge that behaves like a dampener in calm times (SVXY). The plan is to spread the money evenly among those long bets so no single position dominates. If the market looks weak or choppy (for example, SPY is below certain moving averages or momentum signals reach caution thresholds), the system flips to a bear-market protection stance. In that mode, it targets bear/short ETFs and volatility hedges (TECS, SQQQ, SOXS, UVXY) to shield the portfolio or profit from downside/volatility spikes, again allocating more evenly but with a bias toward those instruments that historically perform during downturns or increased volatility. Additionally, there’s a defensive sleeve that includes a Treasury-bond ETF (IEI) as a potential ballast anywhere in the decision path, and an ultra-short/short-bond component (SHV) that can appear as a lighter protection layer depending on the exact rule path. The logic uses a mix of simple, familiar checks (price versus moving averages, current price vs moving average, momentum measures like RSI on a well-known tech/QQQ proxy, and recent performance) to decide which “group” to be in and then allocates 100% of allocation to cash-equal within that group, i.e., distributing evenly across the selected assets. Rebalancing happens daily, so the system constantly recalibrates exposure based on the latest signals. In short: it’s a rules-based, time-sensitive tilt between a high-beta, levered long exposure and a bear-market hedged posture, guided by trend, momentum, and volatility signals rather than a fixed buy-and-hold approach.

Out-of-sample, this strategy seeks outsized upside in strong markets via levered tech bets, while hedging downturns with bear/volatility tools. OOS return ~60.8% vs SPY ~23.2%; Calmar ~1.36—high upside with disciplined risk management (not risk-free).