An aggressive market-timing strategy that is usually 100% in 4x leveraged S&P 500 exposure, but briefly switches to volatility, bearish tech, or bonds when the market looks overheated or weak.

This strategy is usually all-in on SPYU, a very aggressive fund that aims to magnify moves in the S&P 500 by 4x. First it asks: is the overall U.S. stock market in a long-term uptrend? It checks this by seeing whether SPY (a basic S&P 500 fund) is above its 200-day average price. If yes, it normally holds SPYU. But if tech or the stock market has gotten unusually “too hot” very quickly, it switches to UVXY, a fund that tends to rise when fear and market chaos spike. If the market is not in a long-term uptrend, it looks for two possibilities: a sharp rebound opportunity, or a defensive stance. If stocks look heavily beaten down, it still buys SPYU, expecting a bounce. Otherwise it may move into SQQQ (a bet that big tech falls) or TLT (long-term U.S. government bonds), depending on which has stronger recent momentum.

Regime-based timing aims for bigger upside. In out-of-sample tests, annualized return ~26.6% vs ~17.1% for the S&P 500, aided by hedges that capture rallies and reduce risk in stress. Note: leverage can drive larger drawdowns.