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JM256 - SPXL For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) by JM
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A daily-rebalanced, single-position, levered-equity strategy centered on SPXL. It uses a SPY 200-day trend filter, extreme UVXY volatility signals, and RSI-based momentum to rotate among SPXL/UPRO/TQQQ/SQQQ/UVXY/TLT, finally keeping a cash hedge when risk is high.
NutHow it works
- It aims to put most or all capital into a single levered equity instrument each day, selected from a small universe. The core idea is SPXL (3x S&P 500) for upside, but risk controls can switch you out. - Trend filter: it looks at SPY’s current price relative to its 200-day moving average. If SPY is above the 200-day average, the market is considered in an uptrend; if below, risk is increased and it may not hold the levered long asset. - Volatility alert: it monitors UVXY (volatility proxy). If the 10-day RSI of UVXY is very high (around 79–80), that signals rising volatility and potential risk of a sharp move; in such cases the system reduces risk or shifts out of levered long exposure toward hedges or cash. - Momentum/rotation signals: the model also looks at RSI(10) on other levered or inverse instruments (like TQQQ, SQQQ, UPRO) and uses a top-ranking rule (sort by RSI, window of 10 days) to pick the best candidate asset (often 1) to hold. There are additional conditional branches that involve SQQQ (inverse NASDAQ) and TL T (long Treasuries) as potential hedges or rotation components depending on RSI and price conditions. - Price/price signals: some branches use current price versus moving averages (e.g., SPY price vs its moving average) and relative strength comparisons to decide whether to stay invested or move to cash/hedge. - Weighting: the pattern shows repeated cash-equal weighting steps, suggesting the system keeps a disciplined, straightforward allocation approach (mostly 100% in the selected asset, with cash when de-risking signals trigger). - Rebalance: daily. This means every trading day the system reevaluates and can switch the single asset it holds or move to a hedging/cash stance. - Outcome: a disciplined, signal-driven, long-term levered-equity approach with built-in risk controls, aiming to ride long equity trends while limiting exposure when volatility or trend conditions deteriorate.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample upside: ~44.6% annualized return vs SPY ~18%, Calmar ~1.04. A risk-aware, single-levered-position strategy using trend, volatility signals and hedges to ride momentum—yet can incur larger drawdowns (~43%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
AlphaBetaR2R
0.81.250.150.39
Performance Metrics
Cumulative ReturnAnnualized ReturnTrailing 1M ReturnTrailing 3M ReturnSharpe Ratio
669.43%15.2%-1.77%0.2%0.93
22,107,946.19%134.81%-6.26%-2.73%1.85
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,210,804,618.77
Regulatory Fees
$1,741,120.23
Total Slippage
$12,517,201.23
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 25, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity strategy, momentum, volatility hedge, trend filter, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toSPXL. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 28.23%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 43.00%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.