JJ's Canary Leverage v2.2b Replace UPRO with TQQQ
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A regime-switching, canary-driven levered strategy that uses TQQQ (Nasdaq 3x) as the main levered bet, with volatility and safe-haven hedges to limit drawdown during volatility spikes. RSI momentum signals and a momentum-favored “Safe Haven” sleeve steer exposure between risk-on and risk-off assets; a long-term trend filter guides the overall stance. It replaces UPRO with TQQQ to align leverage with Nasdaq exposure and includes diverse hedges like UVXY, TMF, VIXM, UUP, DBC, and GLD/UGL.
- What it tries to do: generate leveraged upside when markets are favorable, but reduce risk when volatility spikes or trends weaken. It uses signals called canaries to decide when to tilt between bets.
- Main bets: 3x exposure to Nasdaq (TQQQ) or volatility-related ETFs (UVXY) depending on momentum checks. When a strong uptrend is suspected, the system leans into TQQQ; when volatility spikes or risk conditions worsen, it moves toward hedges like UVXY and TMF instead of doubling down on risky bets.
- RSI-based timing: a simple momentum gauge checks if short-term price momentum is extreme (overbought) or extreme weakness; this helps decide which levered or hedged position to hold. For example, when RSI on a Nasdaq proxy is very high, volatility hedges may be favored; when momentum is cooler, levered Nasdaq exposure may be preferred.
- Canaries and “Main Canary On” mode: there are layers of signals (75–30 RSI catcher) that, when triggered, adjust the mix toward more offensive or protective assets. A dedicated “Safe Haven Momentum” sleeve looks at several hedging and defensive assets (dollar, Treasuries, gold/commodities, energy, utilities, volatility) and selects the top four by recent performance, allocating 40% of the overall capital to that group.
- Long-term trend filter: there is a 365-day look-back/EMA concept that helps avoid taking on leveraged bets when broad trends aren’t favorable.
- Allocation and rebalancing: the design emphasizes conditional exposure rather than routine rebalancing; the top-level rule indicates no fixed rebalancing cadence, but dynamic, signal-driven placement occurs whenever conditions are met.
- Why replace UPRO with TQQQ: this version explicitly uses TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) to capture Nasdaq breadth rather than S&P 500, aligning leverage with the Nasdaq’s tech/growth tilt and potentially different drawdown characteristics.
- Assets involved: includes UVXY, TQQQ, TMF, VIXM, SPY/QQQ proxies, UUP (US dollar), DBC (commodities), GLD/UGL (gold), IEO (oil & gas), XLU (utilities), and other macro hedges. Some entries (like WOOD in the code) look like placeholders or mis-typed values but the intended assets are those listed above.
- What you should know: this is a highly active, multi-asset, leveraged approach that relies on timing and cross-asset signals. It is not a static, long-term buy-and-hold strategy and can experience large swings in value. Always consider risk tolerance and time horizon before engaging with leveraged strategies.
Out-of-sample, this Nasdaq-tilted, regime-switching strategy targets ~35% annualized returns vs ~22% for the S&P, with Calmar ~1.02 and hedges to dampen spikes. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns in extreme moves.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, volatility hedging, momentum, regime-switching, cross-asset hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEO
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks