JJ's Canary Leverage v2.2a Replace UPRO and TQQQ with SOXL
Today’s Change (Mar 19, 2026)
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About
A rules-based strategy aiming for big upside with SOXL, while sidestepping deep slides using a bond‑vs‑cash “canary,” short‑term hot/cold signals, and a momentum rotation into safe‑haven assets.
It first checks a canary: are broad bonds beating cash over ~2 months? If not, markets look fragile. In calm times it mostly rides a 3x chip‑stock fund (SOXL), with checks on trend and risk appetite (timber vs gold). In fragile times it uses a hot/cold meter (RSI, 0–100; >75=too hot, <30=too cold) on the S&P 500: if too hot, hold a volatility fund (UVXY); if too cold, buy SOXL; otherwise rotate into recent winners among the dollar, Treasuries, gold, commodities, utilities, and oil.
High-octane semis exposure (SOXL) with a canary risk filter and safe-haven rotation. Out-of-sample: ~46% annualized return vs ~22% for the S&P, but higher drawdowns (~51% vs ~19%). Big upside with built-in risk controls.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.66 | 1.01 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 658.69% | 15.09% | -3.62% | -1.93% | 0.92 | |
| 3,136,765.88% | 105.03% | -9.08% | 12.86% | 1.81 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$313,686,588.06Regulatory Fees
$938,228.27
Total Slippage
$6,713,037.65
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, trend-following, mean reversion, volatility hedging, safe-haven rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEO
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks