JJ's Canary Leverage v2.2a Replace UPRO and TQQQ with SOXL
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Chase strength with 3x semiconductors when signals are favorable, and switch to Treasuries, volatility, and other safe‑havens when warnings flash. Short‑term “overbought/oversold” signals fine‑tune entries and hedges.
Goal: seek boosted gains with a 3x semiconductor fund (SOXL) and cut damage by pivoting to long Treasuries (TMF) and volatility hedges (UVXY/VIXM).
Main canary: if broad bonds (BND) lag T‑bills (BIL), use a short‑term RSI “heat meter” on the S&P 500 (SPY). Too hot (>75) → UVXY; too cold (<30) → SOXL; otherwise hold the 4 best safe‑havens (USD, TMF, gold/commodities, defensives).
If bonds lead, check trend (VWO) and lumber vs gold (WOOD vs GLD): Risk‑on → SOXL unless the Nasdaq (QQQ) is overheated (RSI>80), then UVXY. Risk‑off → mostly TMF.
Out-of-sample edge: ~45.9% annualized return vs SPY ~22.1%; risk-adjusted metrics solid (Sharpe ~1.04, Calmar ~0.90). Dynamic hedging and regime-switching aim for bigger upside with prudent safe-haven risk controls.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, leveraged etfs, trend + mean reversion, safe-haven momentum, volatility hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEO
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks