JJ's Canary Leverage v2.2
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
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About
A rules-based, regime-switching strategy that seeks leveraged upside in good times and shifts to hedges/safe havens in stress. Uses a bond canary, short‑term “heat” (RSI), and momentum to fade spikes, buy dips, and rotate defensively when needed.
Step 1, “canary”: if broad bonds (BND) beat T‑bills (BIL) over ~3 months, market is “normal”; otherwise “stressed.”
Normal: If risk looks healthy, hold TQQQ (3x Nasdaq). If prices get short‑term “too hot” (RSI, a 0–100 heat meter), briefly switch to UVXY (volatility hedge). If risk looks weak, use TMF (3x long Treasuries) plus UPRO (3x S&P) or UVXY/VIXM, sized by recent choppiness.
Stressed: RSI catcher—very hot → UVXY; very cold → UPRO; else hold the 4 best “safe havens” (USD, long Treasuries, gold/commodities, utilities/volatility).
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers higher upside (~23.05% annualized) versus the S&P (~18.22%), with a disciplined hedging/regime-switch framework aimed at protecting during stress. Strong upside potential with meaningful long-run alpha.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 798.42% | 15.79% | 1.72% | 4.21% | 0.96 | |
| 340,727.25% | 72.14% | -1.7% | 5.51% | 1.86 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$34,082,724.63Regulatory Fees
$109,985.76
Total Slippage
$1,012,686.89
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 24, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 24%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, volatility hedging, momentum, mean reversion, regime switching