[JH] Modified / Simple MA SPY / BIL
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A simple market-timing strategy: if the broad U.S. stock market looks healthy, it buys a very aggressive tech-heavy fund; if not, it hides in short-term Treasury bills.
This strategy uses the S&P 500 (SPY) as a traffic light for the market.
If SPY is above its 200-day average price (its rough long-term trend), the strategy goes all-in on TQQQ, a fund that tries to magnify the Nasdaq-100’s daily moves by 3x. That means heavy exposure to big tech and growth stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia.
If SPY falls below that long-term trend line, it moves all the money into BIL, a very short-term U.S. Treasury bill fund that behaves like a cash parking spot. It checks this every day.
Simple market-timing: 3x Nasdaq-100 on uptrends; cash on downtrends. Out-of-sample: ~12% annualized return with ~0.48 Sharpe. Drawdowns can exceed SPY (≈36%), but strong upturns offer outsized tech-led gains.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.63 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 852.68% | 14.45% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.88 | |
| 13,763.09% | 34.35% | -25.12% | -16.65% | 0.88 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,386,308.63Regulatory Fees
$693.67
Total Slippage
$3,929.47
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 1, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, tactical asset allocation, market timing, leveraged nasdaq, treasury bills