Japan Kicker
Today’s Change (Sep 21, 2026)
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About
Rules-based Japan market timer. Rides uptrends (often with a 2x Japan ETF), sits in T‑bills when things get too hot or too weak, and occasionally buys extreme dips. Focus: Japanese equities; safety: very short-term US Treasuries.
It toggles between Japan stocks and cash. JPXN (broad Japan) sets the trend: above its 200‑day average = risk‑on; below = risk‑off. RSI(10) is a 0–100 “heat” gauge (high=hot, low=washed‑out) to avoid buying when too hot and to buy extreme dips. In uptrends it holds EZJ (2x Japan) unless RSI>79, then T‑bills (BIL). In downtrends it buys EZJ if RSI<31; else it prefers JPXN unless short‑term is too hot (then BIL). If short‑term is down, a quirky check (SHY’s RSI vs JPXN’s) picks JPXN or BIL.
Out-of-sample annualized return: 24.9% vs S&P 20.6%. A Japan-focused, trend-following strategy uses cash/BIL hedges and selective leverage to pursue higher upside and diversification, with risk controls (max drawdown ~32.8%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.03 | 1.13 | 0.38 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,023.11% | 15.08% | -0.5% | 2.26% | 0.91 | |
| 406.03% | 9.87% | 2.89% | -1.19% | 0.46 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$50,602.62Regulatory Fees
$202.84
Total Slippage
$1,533.52
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 12, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Japan equities, trend-following, momentum, tactical allocation, rsi timing, moving-average filter, leveraged etf, cash/t-bills