ISH PICKS - SPXL/S + S/TQQQ vs BIL + SHY w/sideways recession 2month BULL lagtime 34%AR/27%SD/30%DD, 15% threshhold
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical trend strategy: use 3x stock ETFs (or RTX) in clear uptrends, but retreat to T‑bills when trends weaken. Adds crash and bond health checks, a small semis hedge when the S&P softens, and inverse‑vol weighting to temper swings.
It checks if stocks are trending up: a short-term average price must be above a long-term average. If yes, most money goes to the strongest of three choices—TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100), SPXL (3x S&P 500), or RTX (Raytheon)—plus small slices in AVGO (chips), JNJ (healthcare), and PG (consumer staples). If not, it parks mostly in cash-like T‑bills (BIL/SHV/SHY), with a tiny probe into big US stocks (VV) only on brief bounces. Extra brakes: flee to T‑bills after a sudden drop, use a small bearish semis position (SOXS) if the S&P weakens, and a bond check. It also leans toward the calmer parts using inverse‑vol weighting. RSI = a recent “gains vs. losses” score; a moving average is the average price over X days.
Out-of-sample edge: ~58% annualized return vs 22% for the S&P, Sharpe ~1.88 vs ~1.87, Calmar ~7.15. More upside with built-in risk controls (trend timing, hedges, inverse-vol allocation) and disciplined risk management.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.87 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 588.34% | 13.57% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 1,425.54% | 19.69% | -3.27% | -10.87% | 0.86 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$152,554.00Regulatory Fees
$610.72
Total Slippage
$3,356.85
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 8, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, leveraged etfs, tactical asset allocation, momentum, risk management, treasuries, market timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVGO
Broadcom Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
Stocks
PG
Procter & Gamble Company
Stocks
RTX
RTX Corporation
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks