ISH PICKS - SPXL/S + S/TQQQ vs BIL + SHY w/sideways recession 2month BULL lagtime 34%AR/27%SD/30%DD, 15% threshhold
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
A rules-based, risk-on/risk-off plan: ride bull runs with 3× stock index funds (SPXL/TQQQ), retreat to cash-like Treasuries (BIL/SHV/SHY) when trends weaken, with crash stops and an occasional bearish semiconductor hedge (SOXS).
Goal: use leverage in clear uptrends, go cash-like in downturns.
- Uptrend: put most into the stronger of SPXL (3× S&P 500) or TQQQ (3× Nasdaq‑100), chosen by a recent‑strength score (RSI: how strongly it has risen lately), plus small slices of AVGO (chips), JNJ (healthcare), PG (staples).
- Down/uncertain: hold BIL/SHV/SHY (T‑bills/short Treasuries).
- Safeguards: fast‑drop stop, trend checks, occasional SOXS (3× bearish semis).
Out-of-sample edge: ~58% annualized return vs ~22% for the S&P 500, Sharpe ≈1.88 and Calmar ≈7.15. Slightly higher drawdown (~8% vs ~5%), but leverage fuels uptrends while cash-like Treasuries protect in downturns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.87 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 599.14% | 13.72% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.84 | |
| 1,448.75% | 19.86% | -6.33% | -14.53% | 0.86 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$154,874.51Regulatory Fees
$607.69
Total Slippage
$3,336.27
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 8, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVGO
Broadcom Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
Stocks
PG
Procter & Gamble Company
Stocks
RTX
RTX Corporation
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks