ISH PICKS - SPXL/S + S/TQQQ vs BIL + SHY w/sideways recession 2month BULL lagtime 34%AR/27%SD/30%DD, 15% threshhold
Today’s Change (Jan 20, 2026)
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About
Use 3x S&P/Nasdaq funds in uptrends; switch to cash‑like T‑bill ETFs in downtrends. Extra safety checks can move to cash faster or briefly short semiconductors. Small slices of AVGO, JNJ, PG. Signals use simple trend lines and a short‑term strength meter (RSI).
Big picture: when the market is trending up, it uses 3x stock funds for extra upside; when trends break, it hides in cash-like T‑bill ETFs.
It checks simple trend lines on S&P 500 funds (SPY/VOO). In uptrends it buys either SPXL (3x S&P 500) or TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100)—whichever looks stronger on a short-term “hot/cold” meter (RSI). It also holds tiny slices of AVGO (chips), JNJ (healthcare), and PG (consumer staples).
In downtrends it parks in BIL/SHV/SHY (very short Treasuries). If weakness deepens, it can even use SOXS (3x short semiconductors). A small sleeve (about 10%) rotates quickly between SPXL and TQQQ for bounces when the broader trend is still healthy.
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return ≈71.5% vs SPY ≈21.8%; Sharpe ≈2.27 vs 1.91; Calmar ≈8.84; max drawdown ≈8.1% (SPY ≈5.1%). Uptrend leverage with fast cash risk-off aims for bigger upside and disciplined downside control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 0.87 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 609.76% | 13.96% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.85 | |
| 1,693.35% | 21.22% | 1.53% | 14.67% | 0.91 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$179,334.99Regulatory Fees
$571.75
Total Slippage
$3,079.00
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 8, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, trend following, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, moving averages, rsi, treasuries, inverse hedge, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVGO
Broadcom Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
Stocks
PG
Procter & Gamble Company
Stocks
RTX
RTX Corporation
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks