Inverse- Hold or Invest|8d IEF RSI vs 45d PSQ RSI + KMLM RSI
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Goes risk-on only when bonds look weak and bearish tech looks strong; otherwise parks in T‑bills. If active, it buys inverse, leveraged bets against biotech and long Treasuries, gated by a trend proxy (KMLM). Daily, high risk.
Each day it asks: Are bonds weak now and is “short tech” strong? It uses an RSI score (a 0–100 “recent strength” measure) on IEF (7–10Y Treasuries, 8‑day) and PSQ (−1x Nasdaq‑100, 45‑day). If IEF’s score is lower, it invests; else it holds BIL (T‑Bills). When investing, it splits between LABD (−3x biotech) and TMV (−3x long Treasuries) only if each looks weaker than KMLM (a trend‑following managed‑futures ETF). Very risky; rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample edge: ~31% annualized return with ~15% max drawdown vs SPY ~19%/19%; Sharpe 1.37 vs 1.14; Calmar ~2.04. Negative beta offers diversification, and risk-off timing aims for better downside control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | -0.79 | 0.16 | -0.4 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95.36% | 14% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.86 | |
| 719.52% | 50.92% | 5.77% | 6.28% | 1.39 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$81,951.97Regulatory Fees
$213.15
Total Slippage
$1,350.59
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 18, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, momentum (rsi), inverse etfs, leveraged etfs, trend following, risk-on/off, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks