Inverse- Hold or Invest|8d IEF RSI vs 45d PSQ RSI + KMLM RSI
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily, contrarian allocation to two inverse ETFs (LABD and TMV) targeting biotech and long-term Treasuries declines. It uses RSI momentum checks (IEF vs PSQ; LABD/TMV vs KMLM) plus a 20-day volatility filter to pick two low-volatility candidates, with 25% cash and the rest split between the two. High risk due to 3x leverage and daily rebalancing.
This strategy runs every day. It first checks if bond momentum (IEF RSI over 8 days) is weaker than tech-bear momentum (PSQ RSI over 45 days). If yes, it considers two inverse bets: LABD (bear biotech) and TMV (bear long-term Treasuries). For each, it asks: is its momentum (RSI over 20 days) weaker than a momentum benchmark (KMLM RSI over 10 days)? If true, that asset stays in the pool; otherwise it is replaced by cash (BIL) in that slot. Then it looks at the volatility of the candidates over the last ~20 days and picks the two least volatile assets. The final position weights are: 25% cash, and the remaining 75% split evenly between the two chosen assets. If conditions fail, cash exposure remains higher. This approach emphasizes contrarian bets on LABD and TMV when their momentum is relatively weak compared to KMLM, while trying to avoid the most volatile picks by choosing the two least volatile among eligible assets.
Out-of-sample edge: ~31% annual return vs SPY 19%, drawdown ~15% vs 19%, Sharpe ~1.37 vs ~1.14, Calmar ~2.04. A tactical, leveraged tilt to biotech/bonds aims for higher risk-adjusted upside with downside protection vs the S&P 500.
1M
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6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | -0.8 | 0.16 | -0.4 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91.27% | 13.43% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 764.31% | 52.05% | 5.6% | 9.71% | 1.41 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$86,431.29Regulatory Fees
$213.45
Total Slippage
$1,351.80
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 18, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Inverse bear-etfs, rsi momentum, volatility filter, biotech/bonds exposure, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total
Ticker
Type