Inverse- Hold or Invest|8d IEF RSI vs 45d PSQ RSI + KMLM RSI
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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About
A cautious market-timing strategy that usually sits in Treasury bills, but may make short-term bets against biotech stocks and long-term bonds when defensive market signals appear.
Each day, this strategy first asks: do market signals look defensive? It compares recent strength in government bonds (IEF) with an anti-tech fund (PSQ). If the answer is no, it parks in very short-term Treasury bills (BIL).
If yes, it may bet against biotech stocks (LABD) and/or against long-term bonds (TMV), but only if each one looks weak relative to KMLM, a crisis-friendly trend fund. Otherwise, it stays in BIL.
Out-of-sample, this tactical strategy delivers ~33.9% annualized return vs ~17.1% for the S&P 500, with higher risk-adjusted Sharpe (~1.32 vs ~1.09) and ~19% max drawdown—offering stronger upside with risk-managed hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | -0.81 | 0.16 | -0.4 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120.36% | 14.63% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.91 | |
| 894.45% | 48.74% | 7.04% | 18.62% | 1.35 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$99,445.37Regulatory Fees
$226.99
Total Slippage
$1,708.66
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 18, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, inverse etfs, leveraged etfs, defensive, market timing, risk-off, bonds, biotech, managed futures
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total
Ticker
Type